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Малко канонска философия

Автор: tantris
Дата: 12-11-08 18:12

От "слухарски" сайт но все-пак интересна и отговаряща на някои въпроси. За съжаление само на английски

тук

или направо :

September 3rd

Another update from some of our 'closer to Canon' sources ;-)

A note to new readers - We've been keeping tabs on (mostly) Canon related rumours for several years and receive all kinds of stuff - some more believable than others. Use your common sense when reading it and remember that it's here for entertainment as much as anything else. If we waited until we were absolutely sure (or even 80% Bob ;-) about a comment or rumour, the pages would be a series of product announcements and not much more. We hope you enjoy it ;-)
If you feel you need a dose of something more earnest and serious then do pay a visit to our (rumour free) articles and reviews.

What's next for the 60D (next August)

A current candidate feature set for the 60D (based on a 12 month release schedule) includes:

Improved Live View AF supporting focus tracking
Movable LCD Back (not definite, but easy to do) including a flip up mode to allow ‘from the hip’ shooting
HD movie mode, with AF and stereo sound.
GPS Terminal
Improved normal AF (additional AF points)
Upgraded 50D firmware with additional exposure and image processing options such as Chromatic Aberration adjustment, and even more flexible Auto ISO
Same 15MP Sensor
The 12 month release not absolutely certain yet but is likely, given the expected aggressive Nikon and Sony product cycles.

The 70D would be Digic V and feature a higher MP sensor, more upgrades to image processing algorithms plus whatever whistles and bells development can come up with (inbuilt WiFi, remote control etc.)

Canon feel they can comfortably do a 18MP or even 21MP sensor (53MP FF equiv) for the 60D if needed based on market pressures. Currently, this is not expected for the next update.

Future sensors... 3 or 4 years out.

Even with pixel binning Canon believe there is a point where more MP don’t make sense as they pixels are starting to get small relative to the wavelengths of light etc. creating all sorts of undesirable effects.

They expect to max out in the 50-65MP for a FF camera and a 21 to 25 MP range for crop. The market is likely to push them more to the upper end of the range and their DIGIC planning is on track to deliver the data and image processing rates.

In a few generations of camera, expect a 24-25MP 1.6 crop giving 12MP and 6MP pixel binned images. While the 64/65MP FF at the same pixel density can offer 32, 16 and 8MP pixel binned images as well as dynamic cropping to 1.3 etc.

After this effective ending of the MP race, Canon sees plenty of room for development in improved sensor technology and imagine processing algorithms.

Beyond the 1D... Did I hear EVF?

Canon acknowledges the need to push many more pro-style features into the next range down. This is directly based on Nikon's moves with the D300 and D700.

This has encouraged Canon to begin a ground up re-think of just what else a professional camera needs to differentiate itself (other than rugged build etc.) as 'professional'

There are a number of Canon experimental bodies with separate electronic viewfinders (EVF) using high resolution screens (much higher than the current ones in the new cameras)

These screens are movable to be viewable from the top or back (like medium format). The cameras also support dynamic crop modes, with the electronic viewfinder adjusting accordingly. This includes both 1.3 from FF plus 4:3 and 6:4.5

The bodies are also a significant redesign from the current 1D series form factor.

[Remember that many options get tried in these experimental cameras, before moving to full designs - remember the on again/off again Canon MF development -KC]

Other potential professional series goodies/essentials/needless frippery [fill in your choice ;-) -KC] are, full two way remote control (all major camera functions such as ISO and metering) and built-in WiFi and GPS (built in - integrated). There is still interest in slide in/out mini hard drives (solid state or moving) to give several hundred GB storage.

Feedback from Canon's tame 'professionals' has been generally very positive towards the features ;-)

The market shifts

Canon keeps a eye on the both the growth in the DLSR market share and relative market shares in specific segments.

A key observation that has caught Canon’s attention is the shift over the last 12 months in two key 'pro'/'semi-pro' segments which are relatively fixed in size now (most professional photographers are already on DSLRs)

1 Wedding / Family / Interior Photographers.

Many of these have a pair XXD or XD cameras and 2 or 3 core lenses. Generally the 24-70 F2.8 L, 70-200 L (any variant) and sometimes one other Prime or wide-zoom.
These pros will generally update one of their bodies every year or so keeping a body for 2 or 3 years based on shutter life.
Canon have seen sales of the D3 and 24-70 and 14-24 (and more recently the D300) eat into this market, as the changeover cost is not too high. Some pros are experimenting with two different systems (keeping one lens on each main camera), while others have switched.
The Nikon D300 has added to this and, while early days, the Nikon D700 is expected to as well.
Canon's view is that this based on clever marketing and feature targeting by Nikon with the pro-features in the lower cost model and new high quality 24-70 and 14-24 lenses.
Canon see an exposure still for Nikon in their aging 70-200 F2.8 However, the replacement Nikon 70-200 is being trialled at the moment by Nikon.
The Canon response

The 5D replacement is a very targeted countermeasure aimed at the D700 and inspirational D3 sales. Canon have gone for MP, low ISO, lots of pro features and some additional 'whistle and bells' here to retain and attract the market. [No, surely no MLU button - KC ;-) ]

The 5D replacement is also designed to be an easy step up for current XXD owners, preserving lens investments etc.

The 50D targeted as a low cost D300 competitor

Canon have a second FF coming too to further cover this market.

In terms of lenses the 24-70 F2.8 L IS is ready and work is under way on a 14-24 competitor (with 12-24 and filters being the target)

2 Sports / Press Photographers

While some professionals have large lens and system investments, there are a significant proportion of press and specialist sports photographers who (like the first group) only use a small subset of lenses.
The D3 and some of the longer Nikon glass (like the 200-400) as seen as being strong competitors here. Canon has had some serious repercussions from the bad press / sentiment over the 1D III focus issue.
The move from Canon hasn't been a flood but there have been a number of magazines / newspapers that have swapped systems in the last 12 months as part of their replacement program.
The lens values have made this easy, since many of these photographers would have an average of 2 or 3 lenses and a couple of cameras.
The Canon response

Bringing forward the upgrades of the 1D series by a market surprising amount.

Major redesign of the Autofocus system for their next pro series cameras (ongoing)

Design work on a rethink of the whole pro series body and features while still keeping a sports focus and a studio focus in terms of market.

Lenses

Canon have been working on a number of parallel paths for lens design:

Competitive consumer grade EF-S lenses with IS – the release of the 18-200 IS after last year’s 18-55 and 55-200 are felt to provide good coverage in the XXXD and entry XXD markets.
Replacing core primes and zooms with higher resolution lenses more suitable for the newer 50-65MP FF sensors that are coming over the next few years. This includes the 24L, 35L, 16-35L (done) and 100-400L, 200 L (done) and over time several of the longer Ls
Upgrading IS in all lenses to current 4 stop designs while they do the lenses.
They are also looking at a couple to match specific Nikon / Sigma lenses (think 14-24 and 200-400 2.8 style)
Canon have upped their new lens design capability from 2 to 3 a year (this is significant in the amount of resources required) and are looking at 4 as a peak over the next few years.
[Note, I believe this is 'L' lenses - KC]

No surprise with the long awaited 24-70 IS F2.8 (Canon acknowledged that the current one was showing its limitation on the 1Ds III. Though many will be surprised with the new 35L and 24L.)
[Where's my new TS-E24 :-) - KC]

Canon do not currently have many plans for the non L series primes, with most consumers in that market going for zooms or aspiring to a L series zoom. Given the need to do so much with the rest of the lens range over the next 3-4 years, don't hold your breath waiting for a a new 50/1.4 or the like.

August 30th Future technology? As well as the older info (see under the table below) we were sent some updated info from the same sources. The full text is on the 5D2 page however if the 1.6 crop sensor were to be based on the 50MP FF technology, then it would come out round the 19.5MP mark. Look for extensive use of pixel binning to make use of all those MP at high ISO. Of course, if we're on a 1 year cycle now, the 20MP crop sensor might not come until the 70D ;-)

26th The 50D is released - table below updated. Next August for the 60D or was the 50D just moved ahead for competition reasons?

Well... there is a 60D thread at DPR already discussing this ;-)

21st The 40D to 50D update is compared to the 20D/30D update in a post from someone who claims to have used one [DPR] - first mention of a 60D we see :-)

July 8th Is a 40D refresh being moved from the expected 18 month cycle (we'll see it at PMA in 2009) or will new sensor technology make it into the 50D for Photokina [potn]

Whilst I've been sent various info on the new sensor developments, the only line that was slated for potentially moving to annual updates was the bottom end of the DSLR range.

Meanwhile here's the recent history of similar models

Model Announced Effective pixels Auto focus Continuous (JPEG) LCD monitor
EOS D30 Apr 2000 3.1 mp 3 point 3.0 fps, 3 frames 1.8"
EOS D60 Feb 2002 6.3 mp 3 point 3.3 fps, 8 frames 1.8"
EOS 10D Feb 2003 6.3 mp 7 point 3.3 fps, 9 frames 1.8"
EOS 20D Aug 2004 8.2 mp 9 point 5.0 fps, 23 frames 1.8"
EOS 30D Feb 2006 8.2 mp 9 point 5.0 / 3.0 fps, 30 frames 2.5"
EOS 40D Aug 2007 10.1 mp 9 point 6.5 / 3.0 fps, 85 frames 3.0" (Live view)
EOS 50D Aug 2008 15.1 mp 9 point 6.3 / 3.0 fps, 60/90 frames 3.0" VGA LV

Some recent info (originally on our 1Ds3 page) about Canon's plans over the next few years was sent in August 2007 (shortly before the 40D was actually announced)

Sensor technology - Canon have mentioned that full frame sensor chips need two stepper passes. Sony now has the technology to do this in one pass and are preparing their own sensors and selling to them Nikon. However, Canon have a new 'one pass' technology too. What's more, it can do even larger than 35mm (36x24mm) in a single pass.
Canon is very excited about a next generation CMOS sensors they are working on. Two full frame versions have 40M and 50M pixels at the -same- noise level as the current 1D series. Low power supply voltages give cooler chips and lower noise even with smaller pixels. Different circuit fabrication techniques also promise to make close to 100% of the sensor area active pixels. This technology won't make any of the upcoming models, but is expected in 2009/10.

The competition - Canon were somewhat shocked by the success of the Nikon D80, D40 and D40X. Hence the 'improved' 40D and the improved 400D replacement in the works. Canon know what Nikon have coming (D300 and D3) and have planned the 40D, 1Ds III and 1D III as their answers.
However Nikon is moving to CMOS sensors to over the next couple of years. Sony are moving CMOS to a near full frame (1.25 or so) and full (35mm) FF, so Canon is getting serious and starting to plan some aggressive upgrades.
Sony worries Canon somewhat, since with their manufacturing capabilities, they could move the whole price base down for SLRs. So far they haven’t and their lens prices and range are not a worry for Canon. The current Sony Alpha has been less than astounding in the market.
Moreover, Nikon have the camera credibility and certainly won’t stop with the D3 and D300. Their plans for the lower end (D40-D80 as well) are to replace them in much shorter timeframes than their previous 3-4 years. Nikon have moved emphasis from the low end 'point and shoot' digital into R&D on the DLSRs. They've found this to be 3-4 times as profitable (note Nikon's record profits over last 12 months). Nikon is more than happy with trouncing Canon for the last 12 months in Japan (not so world wide). So the next 2-3 years will see a major DSLR feature 'war'.

IS Technology - This is being introduced in some of their consumer grade lenses. The technology has matured to the point that it can be added at only a small price premium. It gives product differentiation - a reaction to Sony and keeps them ahead of Nikon.

Digic IV - Digic III just won't cut it for the new high density sensors. Digic IV can deal with with the transfer rates for higher bit per pixel images. One Digic IV chip beats the two Digic III in the 1D3.

16 bit RAW - Canon's target for their next generation of sensors is 16 bits per channel giving true HD quality. They are also looking at processing formats to retain that extra definition.

ISO sensitivity - Canon see their next generation lower voltage CMOS as easily doing ISO6400, with a boost to 12800.